These last few days have seen millions take part in the biggest climate protest to date (1) calling for urgent action on climate change. The Climate Strike, School Strike for Climate / Skolstrejk for Klimatet, and Fridays for Future movement began in August 2018 with the stalwart trailblazing of Greta Thunberg in Stockholm Sweden, and has since grown on to a global stage. This Friday saw students make their voices heard around the world, expressing their disenchantment in the lack of political action on global warming, and feelings that the voice of the youth needs to be heard as the voice of those most likely to be affected by the unfolding climate crisis (2, 3). They echo the existential sentiments expressed by Thunberg about the apparent hopelessness in pursuit of education and training when political leaders “won’t pay attention to the facts” (4).
The movement has garnered support foremost from students but also NGOs (5), scientific organisations and researchers (6, 7), businesses (8), and individuals of all ages and professions. Taken together it is an encouraging sign that the tide of public opinion on climate action is starting to turn, and although in a recent poll by the Lowy Institute 61% of Australians agreed “global warming is a serious and pressing problem and we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs” (9), we have previously seen similar levels of public support over a decade ago in 2006, suggesting perhaps the lability of public opinion, or a possibly disconnect between the public’s figurative support for climate action and literal support for climate policy (10). It is easy to suppose the latter to be most true, and that akin to recommendations about diet and exercise, public belief in benefits (11) has not translated into real world action (12).
Though the ever present threat of ecological collapse looms ever-near (13, 14) the future remains fundamentally uncertain, and in this uncertainty exists both the possibility of decisive action and global cooperation, or a future characterised by mass migration, famine, humanitarian crises, and environmental degradation; with all shades in between. There can be little doubt that the odds at present are not favourable (15), and nation’s responses to date are similarly underwhelming. Taking the current state of play with Australia’s rising emissions from the fossil fuel industry (16), de-funding of the Green Climate Fund (17), and deeply saddening developments at the recent Pacific Islands Forum (18, 19), much of the despair, despondency, and nihilism associated with the climate crisis (20, 21, 22) seems an understandable reaction to the very likely insurmountable challenge that we face.
But the probability of success must not determine our resolve and commitment to action. Indeed, some of the most important turning points for humanity have been determined by the finest of margins conceivable; Vasily Arkhipov’s actions during the Cuban missile crisis, the position of a single safe/arm switch in the 1961 Goldsboro B-52 crash, and the cool-headedness of Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov’s in 1983. And though the climate crisis represents the most complex and far-reaching challenge ever faced by humanity, it is at least one for which we have viable, practical, and efficacious solutions at hand (23, 24), if only we can muster the collective societal and political will to deploy them. Both as individuals and as a society, our resolve to reduce our environmental impact and our commitment to sustainability must not be predicated on a guarantee of success.
Though at this moment it may seem improbable that global warming is constrained to 1.5 degrees, or that the action taken as individuals is meaningful in addressing deep-seated systemic failings, we need only still believe that change is possible in order to try - it is an uncertain future too important to leave to chance.
Pour ce qui est de l’avenir, il ne s’agit pas de le prévoir, mais de le rendre possible
Antoine de Saint Exupéry, Citadelle, 1948 (25)
T Michniewicz, 22/09/19
Reference
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